Corona : How much risk of interaction in Mumbai

Currently as per official count there are 15000 cases in Mumbai Metropolitan region. In America based on antibody testing they saw they were under counting 10-20 times.

As per creator of best COVID model, Infection Fatality Rate of COVID is 1% [1]. Currently there are 510 deaths from COVID in Mumbai Metropolitan Region. So there should be around 51000 cases in Mumbai, a week ago.
So assume that currently there are 60000 cases in Mumbai. 15000 are in quarantine. So there would be 45000 undetected cases in Mumbai.


Scenario 1

 If all these 45000 undetected cases are only in containment zone, then there would be zero risk to people living outside containment zones.

Scenario 2
If we assume all 45000 cases are outside containment zone.

Then In 2 crore population of Mumbai, 2.25 out of 1000 people are infected but they don't know it. If we take a random person in Mumbai, his chance of being coronavirus free is 99.77%. For two random persons chance of being coronavirus free is 0.9977^2.

If you pick 100 random persons, chance that no one among them is infected is only 0.9977^100 ~ 0.80 implying if hundred people are in office, chance that one of them is corona positive is 20%.

Scenario 3

 Since coronavirus cases are detected with a lag. People don't have symptoms for sometime. So more likely is that half of undetected cases are outside containment zone. In that cases 22500 people have coronavirus outside containment zone and they don't know it.

In that case, If we take a random person in Mumbai, his chance of being coronavirus free is 99.88%. For two random persons chance of being coronavirus free is 0.9988^2.

If you pick 100 random persons, chance that no one among them is infected is only 0.9988^100 ~ 0.8936 implying if hundred people are in office, chance that one of them is corona positive is 10.64%.



These are probability of a case in a single day in office. Across more number of days or more number of people these probabilities are only higher.  

 If any positive case is detected in organization then Bombay Municipal Coroporation seals the building. So organisations should also enforce attendance limits, not allowing more than certain number of people in office.

[1] https://mobile.twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1256051256369360896

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