Omnicron surge

Within one-two months , Omnicron would cause largest ever surge of Covid cases in India. As Omnicron is

A. Much more transmissible than Delta , previously the fastest variant of covid [11, 12, 13]

Spreads 3-5 times faster than delta. Recall how fast delta spread in India. Covid cases will explode like tsuami the week it decides to explode. Covid is also spread by asymptomatic people. 

B. Has unprecedented level of immune evasion. [3, 4, 7, 9, 10, 14]

Anybody who is not both infected plus vaccinated will get infected by this virus. In a lab study they observed that for most of 2 dose vaccinated people and only covid recovered people, levels of antibodies was not sufficient to protect from symptomatic infection. Protection from severe infection and from death would be still there. But reduced compared to delta. UK scientists measured vaccine effectiveness against omnicron for symptomatic infection. Two does of vaccine does not provide any protection



Reason for not being as bad as delta surge

A High level of immunity

Delta has already infected most of people in India. Only infection from Delta would not protect from symptomatic infection but provide protection from severe disease

B Vaccination

There was almost no vaccination during delta surge.

C Less Severe [2, 5]

Adjusted for vaccination/immunity, it is 29 % less severe than wuhan virus as per a South African study.  

But we cannot take it lightly as

A More severe for children than any previous variant of virus[2, 6]

Many kids are getting hospitalized in South Africa. 

B Discovered one month ago, so much is unkown about the virus [8, 14]

Even severity of the virus is still being debated. UK scientists have found no evidence that delta is less severe than Delta

Conclusion

Small fraction of a very large number is also a big number. We are going to have large number of omnicron cases. Most of them would be very mild but sheer number of cases would result in large number of hospitalizations.  


Source

1) https://twitter.com/world_epidemic/status/1471042502333702147

2) https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712686828826630

3) https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712673629261837

4) https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712667644080136

5) https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1471490003804954644

6) https://twitter.com/_stah/status/1470867744082079744

7) https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1471035675382358018

8) https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1469394377504133132

9) https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469352384707141637

10) https://twitter.com/OYCar/status/1468506067977990144

11) https://twitter.com/JPWeiland/status/1467200560919154695

12) https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1466820922141298693

13) https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1466502024682475520

14) https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2021-12-16-COVID19-Report-49.pdf

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