China vs USA

China has long been a major manufacturing and engineering center, accounting for a significant share, sometimes exceeding fifty percent, of global production for numerous items. However, it traditionally lagged in certain cutting-edge technology sectors, such as advanced semiconductor chips and mobile operating systems.


In the years since the COVID-19 pandemic began, China appears to have made significant advancements in science and technology. Despite facing US sanctions, notable progress has been reported in areas like large language models and electric vehicle (EV) technology. In several advanced technology fields, China is now considered very close to, or in some cases, potentially ahead of the USA. Key areas where the US is often still seen as maintaining a lead include advanced semiconductor manufacturing and military fighter jet technology, though China is investing heavily to close these gaps.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2e0Q8_f7fic

Concurrently, recent US policies have strained relationships with key allies in Europe, Japan, and South Korea. Furthermore, the US has seen a significant portion of its manufacturing base move offshore over recent decades and faces increasing competition that challenges its technological lead. For example, tariffs imposed on allies during the Trump administration caused friction. Some observers express concern that shifting US policies have raised questions about the long-term reliability of American commitments. Ukraine, for instance, has endured immense sacrifices during the ongoing conflict, yet faces uncertainty regarding sustained international support, which some interpret as deeply disrespectful given their efforts.


Based on these trends, I believe China may surpass the USA as the leading global power relatively soon. If this occurs, the justification for the US dollar's status as the primary world reserve currency could weaken significantly. The US economy benefits considerably from the dollar's role, which helps facilitate the financing of its large trade and budget deficits. Losing this status could trigger a major economic crisis in the USA.


Some might argue that maintaining global primacy, even through conflict, is seen by certain US strategists as the only way to prevent this economic decline. The US possesses the world's most powerful military. Consequently, US actions regarding Taiwan are often provocative, aimed at causing China Taiwan war, just like Russia-Ukraine war.

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